Home > Librarianship > Body Language and Elections (Social Sciences Librarian Boot Camp 2012)

Body Language and Elections (Social Sciences Librarian Boot Camp 2012)

“Analyzing Participation of Voters in US Presidential Elections” Dr. Charles Stewart III, MIT

  • Recommends the book Southern Politics in State and Nation
  • Have elections gotten better since 2000?
  • Ideological claims amount to religious beliefs, not scientific beliefs.
  • Based on 2000 data between 1.5 and 2 million votes were lost to voting machines, 2 million to registration difficulties, and 1 million to voters getting frustrated on site and walking away.
  • All voting data for each state is online except for Massachusetts.
  • EAC–Election Assistance Commission
  • There has been real improvements in voting machines.
  • Recommends DataFerret (although, the website appears to be busted?)
  • We’re doing better at registering and counting votes, but do we feel better?  Although we’ve improved, Americans don’t believe it.
  • Recommends The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix It

“Body Language” Dr. Joseph Tecce, Boston College

  • Extremes in body language and/or eye movement are red flags.
  • Negative feeling states always increase blink rate.
  • Positive feeling states always decrease blink rate.
  • Indicators of stress include: eye blinks, gaze aversion.
  • During the 2008 presidential debates, Obama blinked 62 times, and McCain blinked 104 times (per minute?)
  • Although we have no video of as high stress of a situation as a presidential debate of Romney, the current video of him on a panel shows a 16 blink rate.
  • Tecce predicts that Romeny and Obama are going to have a very close election.
  • Blink rate of televised presidential candidates during their debates predict 100% who will win, except in 2000.
  • Thus, we know that blink rate predicts the popular vote.
  • Social cue hypothesis: body language is not just a social cue, it’s an indicator.
  • You cant tell when someone is lying from one indicator, but it’s a good sign to be on alert.

“Forecasting Elections” Munish Puri, Recorded Future

  • Perspective is affected by the four p’s: perch, point of view, period, permanence.
  • When talking or writing about forecasting, it’s important to consider the point of view of the predictor.
  • political risk–how politics impact business
  • Make and falsify predictions by using: probability, impact, and time range.
  • Recommended tools to monitor and watch elections: Electionista, WaPo Modifiable Model, GooglePortal, Yahoo Clues
  • Insight big data can show us: signal, shift, blindspot, outlier, and flashpoints
  • Recommends Evernote and MindManager

 

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